La derrota republicana en las elecciones legislativas de Estados Unidos abrió una discusión en la Casa Blanca sobre el costo político de la guerra con Irán. El vicepresidente JD Vance señaló este miércoles 4 de noviembre que el conflicto fue la principal causa del revés que permitió a los demócratas recuperar la Cámara de Representantes y el Senado.
«La razón por la que perdimos es la guerra. El propio presidente lo dijo anoche», escribió Vance en X. Donald Trump había reconocido que el conflicto influyó en el resultado, aunque defendió la decisión de lanzar la ofensiva.
VANCE EMPLAZA A LOS DEFENSORES DE LA OFENSIVA
El vicepresidente pidió a quienes respaldan la guerra que expliquen si consideraban aceptable perder el Senado como consecuencia de la decisión. A su juicio, cualquier discusión sobre el rumbo del Partido Republicano debe partir por reconocer cuánto pesó el conflicto en las urnas.
Sus declaraciones pueden leerse como un intento de tomar distancia de la ofensiva ante una eventual candidatura presidencial en 2028. Vance ha cuestionado durante años el intervencionismo militar de Estados Unidos y, según el medio, habría expresado en privado sus reparos frente a la guerra con Irán.
LA ECONOMÍA TAMBIÉN PESÓ EN LAS URNAS
Vance sostuvo que parte del electorado que respaldó a la fórmula republicana en 2024 cambió su voto por los efectos económicos de la guerra. Citó un sondeo que, según explicó, identificó el conflicto y la situación económica entre las razones del retroceso electoral, junto con el interés de algunos votantes en replantear la relación de Estados Unidos con Israel.
Trump y el primer ministro israelí, Benjamin Netanyahu, ordenaron los primeros ataques contra Irán el 28 de febrero, la ofensiva buscaba destruir la infraestructura nuclear y la capacidad misilística iraní, además de respaldar un levantamiento contra el gobierno. El medio indicó que esos objetivos seguían pendientes y que las hostilidades se habían extendido a otros países de Medio Oriente.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was «composition»—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? «No,» he told me. «We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.»
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
